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NDMA National Emergencies Operation Centre (NEOC) technical analysis of weather projections
for Monsoon Season for the month of July 2024 has been prepared after in-depth analysis of multiple weather models; details are covered in ensuing paras. Detailed preparatory and anticipatory actions for response by individuals, communities and all DM responders to heavy rains, torrential rains, flooding etc have already been enumerated in NDMA National Disaster Response Plan 2024/25 and NDMA National Monsoon Contingency Plan 2024. Some of the actions are being covered in this advisory for due emphasis.
2. Rains Projections. Province-wise details of projected weather conditions for the entire month of July 2024 on weekly basis are as under.
Punjab & ICT
st
(1) 1 Week (approx 15-50 mm rainfall in areas). Heavy rain spells are
anticipated in ICT, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Sargodha, Faisalabad & Gujranwala
Divisions. While intensity and duration of rains is expected to be
comparatively lower in Multan, DG Khan & Bahawalpur Divisions.
(2) 2 Week (approx 25-35 mm rainfall in areas). Monsoon activity will
persist in ICT, Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Sargodha, Lahore & Faisalabad
Divisions. Isolated rains /
showers are expected in
Multan, DG Khan &
Bahawalpur Divisions.
(3) 3 Week (approx 15-25 mm
rainfall in areas). Monsoon
activity will remain significant
in ICT & Upper Punjab, while
there will be noticeable
decrease in rains activity in
Central & South Punjab as
monsoon enters a weak
phase.
(4) 4 Week (approx 50-70 mm rainfall in areas). Heavy rains may lead to
flooding in ICT, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Sargodha, Gujranwala & Faisalabad
Divisions. Hill torrents in DG Khan Division are expected. Moderate to heavy
rains are forecasted for the Sahiwal, Multan & Bahawalpur Divisions.
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